Excerpted from Watertown Daily Times
By Steve Sharp
The Jefferson County Economic Development Consortium’s Executive Director Genevieve Coady has just completed a detailed economic impact study on a College of Osteopathic Medicine being considered for location on the far north side of Jefferson in the coming years. According to her analysis, positive local and statewide impacts would be felt if the college is realized. In addition to that, a representative of the college told the Daily Times Friday the college has strong support statewide.
“Momentum for the college is significant and there is a real statewide buzz,” Mark Lefebvre said Friday. “Genevieve is right — The College of Osteopathic Medicine is coming to Jefferson.” Lefebvre said the support that TCOM has received from the City of Jefferson and Jefferson County has
been, and continues to be, “extraordinary.”
Coady spent considerable time in her report noting areas of economic impact analysis studied included direct, indirect and induced growth.
“Direct growth occurs from the increase in jobs or commodities created — in this case educating future doctors to help alleviate the current and long-term shortage of primary care physicians needed in Wisconsin, as well as jobs created for the faculty and staff of The College of Osteopathic Medicine
(TCOM),” Coady said. “Indirect growth occurs through purchases of goods and services from local businesses, which thereby produces an increase in jobs filled and increases in household spending by faculty, staff and students. Induced growth occurs through the re-spending of income earned through the jobs created.”
Relating to growth of jobs in the economy, Coady said direct, indirect and induced job growth could well be occurring not only from filling the gap of nearly 2,000 primary care doctors needed statewide to practice and lead integrated care teams in Wisconsin by 2030, but by providing graduates who practice across all health care disciplines.
“Both local and statewide job growth will result from TCOM,” Coady stated in her report. Addressing annual economic activity, Coady said there would likely be an increase in direct and indirect output resulting from the increase in output by other industry sectors. In terms of annual value-added wealth, she said there could be an increase in the wealth of both the county and state created by businesses’ employee compensation, rent, interest and taxes.
Coady’s study looked at a statewide economic impact analysis.
“Each year, an estimated 750 physicians are recruited into Wisconsin from other states — comprising the vast majority of new doctors in Wisconsin. With the increasing national shortage, it will become progressively more difficult for Wisconsin to import physicians from outside of the state. Wisconsin has a current deficit of approximately 400 primary care doctors,” her report stated.
In November 2011, the Wisconsin Hospital Association (WHA) projected Wisconsin will need approximately 88 additional new primary care physicians per year for the foreseeable future to overcome both the supply deficit of primary care doctors and the projected additional need for primary care from projected population growth, aging demographics, and strong pressure to constrain health care costs. In the year 2030, it is estimated the state will have a shortfall of approximately 1,200 to 2,300 new primary care doctors. Every year thereafter the shortage will increase by approximately 88 doctors.
The reported noted estimated Wisconsin primary care physician shortfall to be 1,327 physicians in 2025, 1,415 in 2026 and 1,767 physicians by 2030.
“If The College of Osteopathic Medicine matriculates its first class in 2018, it will have an effect on the primary care physician shortage beginning in 2022, when the first graduates enter the workforce as residents,” Coady said adding 80 percent of the TCOM class of 160 will likely stay to practice in Wisconsin. Of these, 60 percent will likely practice as primary care physicians. “This would equal, beginning in 2022 on an annual basis, approximately 77 new primary care doctors and 128 doctors overall practicing in Wisconsin.”
To insure enough primary care physicians are retained in Wisconsin, TCOM is establishing a new approach to medical residencies through community-based residencies, which will be funded either annually or permanently endowed. The program will be available to graduates of all medical schools in Wisconsin.
By 2030, there will be an estimated shortfall of approximately 1,767 primary care physicians in Wisconsin if enough primary care physicians are produced in Wisconsin to fill these positions an estimated 3,725 permanent jobs could be created for Wisconsinites to support this increase in practicing primary care physicians. In addition, communities, community services and businesses would grow to support these newly filled jobs. This results from the increase in direct, indirect and induced job growth from these practicing physicians.
It is estimated there would be a $520.6 million increase in annual economic activity within Wisconsin. There would be an approximate increase in the wealth of the state by $338 million annually. Annually, an additional $300 million of employee income would be created throughout state for Wisconsinites.
